Economic trends

Insight / Economic trends: productivity levels shows signs of improvement

Although the UK’s productivity is showing signs of improvement, over-optimism can lead to errors in forecasts, warns Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics

Insight / Economic trends: investors are too cautious

Despite a strong stock market, investors are increasingly pessimistic, but is this really just a defence mechanism, asks Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

Insight / Economic trends: long-term wage stagnation

The downgrade to the growth forecast will hit productivity and keep average earnings at pre-2008 levels, worse than could have been predicted even back in 2010, warns Thomas Pope, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies

Insight / Economic trends: uncertain effect of higher UK interest rates

The Bank of England’s recent rise in interest rates marks the first tightening in policy for a decade and although it is unlikely to make a significant impact on households or business, the longer term outlook for rate levels could have more pernicious effects, warns George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Economic trends: early warning on post-Brexit economy

Lack of certainty about the Brexit outcome is dampening UK activity as the global economy is in growth mode, Markit chief economist Chris Williamson warns

Insight / Economic trends: removing currency risk post-Brexit

Carl Hasty, director of Smart Currency Business, provides a potted history of currency movements between sterling and the euro since the UK voted to withdraw from the EU, and examines the level of risk to the pound going forward

Tax / Economic trends: rising taxes on buy-to-let landlords

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics warns about the risks of an increasingly unaffordable property market and threat of ever rising taxes on buy-to-let landlords, making it harder to expand home ownership

Insight / Economic trends: a flat decade

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, examines the long-term impact of a decade without any interest rate rises and the negative affect on UK consumers

Insight / Economic trends: politics will slow debt repayment

The squeeze on day-to-day government spending and political pressures of a hung parliament mean the debt is unlikely to be paid down, says Institute for Fiscal Studies deputy director Carl Emmerson

Tax / Economic trends: unstoppable forces and immovable objects

Nomura chief UK economist George Buckley takes stock of the UK’s progress since its vote to leave the EU, the tightening consumer confidence and the effect of the snap election on the economy

Insight / Economic trends: sterling works

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics analyses how the pound has managed to remain resilient over the last year despite global political headwinds and Brexit fears

Insight / Economic trends: testing the mettle

Despite being surprisingly resilient to Brexit concerns in the run up to 2019, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, forecasts a period of turbulence for the economy as the UK heads towards unchartered waters

Insight / Economic trends: more cuts ahead as austerity is not over

As the tax burden grows, government austerity plans are unlikely to ease. Thomas Pope, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) considers the pressures on the public purse, looking at the areas worst hit by the continuing budget cuts

Tax / Economic trends: inflation and commodity prices could define 2017

As the new year begins to take shape, Laith Khalaf warns inflation and commodity prices could have a significant bearing on 2017

Tax / Economic trends: don’t rule out more surprises in 2017

After an unpredictable and turbulent year, PwC senior economic adviser Andrew Sentance predicts a year of further political disruption in the US and Europe