Economic trends

Insight / Economic trends: Brexit jitters could change political status quo

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics, considers the economic impact of a potential change of government, even under the scenario of a Labour-led coalition

Insight / Economic trends: it is time to transfer defined benefit pensions?

Nathan Long, senior pension analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, considers the pros and cons of defined benefit transfers for pension holders

Accounting / Economic trends: council funding system faces overhaul

David Phillips and Neil Amin-Smith, economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) examine the plans for radical overhaul of the council funding system, the impact of the funding pilot on local authoritiy spending and question whether it is creating fairer distribution of funds for local authorities

Insight / Economic trends: inflation and the disappearing Phillips Curve

The lack of inflationary pressure is something of a puzzle for economists as conventional patterns based on the accepted theory of the Phillips Curve are not playing out as expected, explains George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Economic trends: juggling global growth and long-term issues

The jobs-rich growth pattern is masking underlying risks for higher inflation and longer term issues, warns Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit

Insight / Economic trends: productivity levels shows signs of improvement

Although the UK’s productivity is showing signs of improvement, over-optimism can lead to errors in forecasts, warns Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics

Insight / Economic trends: investors are too cautious

Despite a strong stock market, investors are increasingly pessimistic, but is this really just a defence mechanism, asks Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

Insight / Economic trends: long-term wage stagnation

The downgrade to the growth forecast will hit productivity and keep average earnings at pre-2008 levels, worse than could have been predicted even back in 2010, warns Thomas Pope, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies

Insight / Economic trends: uncertain effect of higher UK interest rates

The Bank of England’s recent rise in interest rates marks the first tightening in policy for a decade and although it is unlikely to make a significant impact on households or business, the longer term outlook for rate levels could have more pernicious effects, warns George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Economic trends: early warning on post-Brexit economy

Lack of certainty about the Brexit outcome is dampening UK activity as the global economy is in growth mode, Markit chief economist Chris Williamson warns

Insight / Economic trends: removing currency risk post-Brexit

Carl Hasty, director of Smart Currency Business, provides a potted history of currency movements between sterling and the euro since the UK voted to withdraw from the EU, and examines the level of risk to the pound going forward

Tax / Economic trends: rising taxes on buy-to-let landlords

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics warns about the risks of an increasingly unaffordable property market and threat of ever rising taxes on buy-to-let landlords, making it harder to expand home ownership

Insight / Economic trends: a flat decade

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, examines the long-term impact of a decade without any interest rate rises and the negative affect on UK consumers

Insight / Economic trends: politics will slow debt repayment

The squeeze on day-to-day government spending and political pressures of a hung parliament mean the debt is unlikely to be paid down, says Institute for Fiscal Studies deputy director Carl Emmerson

Tax / Economic trends: unstoppable forces and immovable objects

Nomura chief UK economist George Buckley takes stock of the UK’s progress since its vote to leave the EU, the tightening consumer confidence and the effect of the snap election on the economy
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