Economic trends

Insight / Warning of Brexit director brain drain

BDO is warning of a potential brain drain in the UK economy if the government does not make a concerted effort to retain and attract European business leaders post-Brexit, after its research found more than 40,000 board-level directors of UK businesses are citizens of EU27 countries

Insight / Hunt is on for next Bank of England head

The Treasury has announced that the process to appoint the next governor of the Bank of England has begun, with the current incumbent Mark Carney, due to step down next year

Insight / Economic trends: jobs growth hides productivity collapse

Despite Brexit uncertainty, the UK economy continues to grow, creating record levels of employment and no let-up in consumer spending, but poor productivity could lead to an economic hangover, argues George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Business confidence wilts under Brexit pressure

UK economic confidence improved a little at the start of the year, but remains lower than many other countries worldwide, according to research from ACCA and the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA)

Insight / Economic trends: policymakers start to grasp gloomier outlook

The UK economic outlook has darkened with risks shifting increasingly to the downside. Importantly, Brexit uncertainty plays an important part in this, but is by no means the only factor, says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit

Insight / Economic trends: Brexit burn dampens investment

Ongoing uncertainty about a post-Brexit business landscape is creating a subdued market with less willingness to invest in listed companies with a UK focus, despite the FTSE All Share currently offering a dividend yield of around 4.5%, says Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

Insight / Economic trends: legacy costs, care bill and public spending

Ben Zaranko, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), argues that the spiralling costs of health, pensions and long-term care mean that future tax hikes are inevitable

Insight / Economic trends: impact of US-China trade war on UK exports

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics, considers how a slowdown in US and Chinese economic growth caused by a trade war would affect the UK, and whether the current trade deficit means the domestic market is insulated from the risks

Insight / Economic trends: wages, unemployment and monetary policy

The short-term gains in wage growth may be limited by weak productivity and a low unemployment rate, suggests George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Economic trends: risky decision to raise interest rates

Raising interest rates amidst a climate of trade wars and stalling global trade is a high risk policy, particularly since the pace of economic growth is set to slow in the second half of 2018, argues Chris Williamson

Insight / Economic trends: Brexit jitters could change political status quo

Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics, considers the economic impact of a potential change of government, even under the scenario of a Labour-led coalition

Insight / Economic trends: it is time to transfer defined benefit pensions?

Nathan Long, senior pension analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, considers the pros and cons of defined benefit transfers for pension holders

Accounting / Economic trends: council funding system faces overhaul

David Phillips and Neil Amin-Smith, economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) examine the plans for radical overhaul of the council funding system, the impact of the funding pilot on local authoritiy spending and question whether it is creating fairer distribution of funds for local authorities

Insight / Economic trends: inflation and the disappearing Phillips Curve

The lack of inflationary pressure is something of a puzzle for economists as conventional patterns based on the accepted theory of the Phillips Curve are not playing out as expected, explains George Buckley, chief UK economist at Nomura

Insight / Economic trends: juggling global growth and long-term issues

The jobs-rich growth pattern is masking underlying risks for higher inflation and longer term issues, warns Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit